Tagwirizana mpweya ndi China: ubwino ndi kuipa

Patatha zaka zokambirana, Russia anapeza mpweya athane ndi China. Kuyambira nthawi imeneyo, kusemphana kusaina mgwirizano sichitha. Maganizo anagawanika. Ena amakhulupirira ndikupeleka imeneyi n'kopindulitsa kwambiri, pamene ena - imfa. M'nkhani ino tikambirana za zotsatira zabwino ndi zoipa pangano mwa kundipatsako kwa Russian "mafuta buluu" mu China.

Terms of tagwirizana ndi

Kutanthauza kuti mpweya pangano ndi China? Terms of ndikupeleka ali motere: mgwirizanowo ndi zaka 30, wolemera $ biliyoni 400. Mayiko awiri adzamange payipi kudzera amene China adzalandira Russian gasi zofunika chitukuko cha chuma chake. Komanso okwanira "mafuta buluu" adzawononga mpweya dziko. Chaka chilichonse China adzaperekedwa kiyubiki mamita biliyoni 38 mpweya. M'kupita kwa nthawi, buku la kotunga adzakhala kawiri. Koma Russia, izo, kuwonjezera phindu zoonekeratu chuma, adzatha kusiyanitsa msika chimasanduka ake ndi kuchepetsa kudalira Ulaya.

Payipi "Mphamvu ya Siberia"

zogulitsa kunja mafuta idzachitike pa waukulu payipi mpweya "Mphamvu ya Siberia". Iye adzakhala mbali ya dongosolo zoyendera wa Irkutsk ndi Yakutsk malo mpweya kupanga lolunjika pa kotunga "mafuta buluu" mu China, Japan, Korea ndi Far East.

Gawo loyamba la "Yakutia-Khabarovsk-Vladivostok" payipi mpweya ndi ayambitse ntchito mu 2017. The utali wonse wa pomanga adzakhala 4000 makilomita. Poyamba adzakhala ndi makilomita 3000 nthawi yonse yotsala ya payipi - makilomita 800. M'mimba mwake wa mapaipi a payipi ya - 1.420 mm, mphamvu - biliyoni 61 kiyubiki mamita pa chaka. Njira njira, amene adzaikidwa pa "Mphamvu ya Siberia", adzakhala malo a payipi mafuta "kum'mawa Siberia-Pacific Ocean", umene kupereka mwayi kupulumutsa ndalama pa zomangamanga ndi mphamvu kusintha Mwachangu.

Zolinga za ndikupeleka

Akukhulupirira kuti mpweya pangano ndi China - ndi yojambula mphindi kugwirizana ndi vuto zovuta geopolitical mu Europe. Komabe, mapeto a mapangano amenewa sizichitika tsiku limodzi kapena miyezi ingapo. Kwa zaka khumi ndi zisanu kumanga asapita, Russia ndi China. Gasi mgwirizano - chotsatira cha ntchito nthawi yaitali kuti amange zikuluzikulu njira mgwirizano pakati mphamvu awiri kuti alimbikitse pamalo ake dziko. Pakali pano, mgwirizano pakati China ndi Russia walandira wozungulira latsopano, onse andale ndi mawu a zachuma. Osati mwangozi, ambiri mpweya mgwirizano otchedwa wosaiwalika ndi China.

msika osiyana

"Musamakhulupirire mazira anu onse mu mtanga umodzi," - anati mwambi. Ndithudi, okhazikika Russia ndi kumadzulo kwa Ulaya, mikangano angakhale ndi zotsatira sizimadziwika. ziletso pa za chuma, zomwe mayiko EEC akuyesera kuti "chifukwa ndi" dziko lathu pambuyo inalowa ku Crimea Russian, mukugwirizana katundu mafuta ndi mafuta. Ndipo ngati ku Russian "golide wakuda" Europe zovuta kukana, chifukwa pa m'gawo lake pali ayenga zambiri, "buluu mafuta" tinganene kuti ali pangozi. M'mayiko EEC ndi disadvantageous kwambiri kusiya Russian zachilengedwe. mnzawo njira - United States - posachedwapa sadzatha kulowa msika European ndi yambiri gasi. Komabe, kuopseza mpaka pano, kotero nthawi zinasaina zambiri mpweya Russia. China, amene mu 2014 anali motsimikiza kuti kulimbitsa ubale zachuma ndi dziko lathu, ndi chodziwikiratu kuti zingawononge ake ziletso iliyonse.

Akatswiri kuona kuti vuto la kulephera kwa Europe pa Russian kampani gasi "Gazprom" adzakhala woyenera zina. Tiyerekeze kuchuluka kwa "mafuta buluu" mu msika European adzakhala yafupika ku panopa 29% 16%. Nkhawa, kuti si kutaya malonda, angakhale okwanira kuonjezera buku la mafuta amagulitsidwa China kwa kiyubiki mamita biliyoni 70.

Msungidwe Chinese mu chuma Russian

Mu 2013, buku la ndalama mwachindunji ku China mwa chuma Russian anakwana madola biliyoni 4,08. Izi ndi otsika kwambiri chithunzi, anapatsidwa kuti chuma m'mayiko ena, China ali padera makumi mabiliyoni. Komabe, chifukwa intensification ubale Chirasha Chinese mu 2020, ndalama China timayenera kukula kasanu. Imodzi mwa madera kwambiri zingamuthandize ku China otchedwa ndalama ku chitukuko chuma Far East.

Organization za katundu wa Russian "mafuta buluu" mu China - ndi zikuluzikulu ndalama ntchito tanthauzo lonse. Only pa gawo la Chitaganya cha Russia mu ntchito yomanga maofesi zoyendera ndi kupanga mafuta adzakhala padera pafupifupi $ biliyoni 55. Kum'mawa kwa dziko lathu lino kukhala chachitali mpweya zomangamanga, ndiko kusintha chuma cha m'dera lonse. m'magulu a zachuma Russian apeza mphamvu yaikulu chitukuko: zomangamanga, mafakitale chitoliro, zitsulo. Tikumbukenso kuti payipi "Mphamvu ya Siberia" omwe amapereka mpweya kuti China kudzachitika, anamanga kuyambira mipope makamaka Russia.

Mtengo wa mafuta anagulitsa

Kodi idzafunika Russian gasi bwenzi lathu Chinese? Nkhani imeneyi lafotokozedwa padziko lonse. Yankho kuti wabisika pansi pa chophimba mwachinsinsi malonda choncho ndi intrigue chachikulu cha pangano. Ngati inu kudziwa mtengo zochokera kuchuluka okwana mgwirizano mpweya ndi buku ankayembekezera okwanira, phindu lake adzakhala $ 350 pa kiyubiki mamita 1,000. m. chidaliro zambiri amatenga Aleksey Grivach, wachiwiri wotsogolera wa Fund Security Energy. Malinga ndi iye, amaganizira nthawi kuwonjezeka okwanira mu zaka zisanu kiyubiki mamita biliyoni 38 mtengo mpweya Russian kwa kiyubiki mamita 1000. mamita angafikire madola 380.

Ziyenera adzanyamula kukumbukira kuti mtengo wa mafuta zimagulitsidwa ku China n'kofunika kuchotsera mlingo wa msonkho pa m'zigawo mchere, kuyambira madipoziti, amene adzakhala gwero la mafuta zofunikira izikandichitira msonkho. Motero, boma bajeti adzataya ndalama zambiri. Iwo likukhalira kuti pansi mzere mtengo wa "mafuta buluu" chifukwa China adzakhala zosakwana ndalama pafupifupi ($ 381) mpweya anatipatsanso "Gazprom" ku Ulaya. Ndipo kwambiri poyerekeza ndi mtengo pafupifupi limene China amazitenga kuchokera Myanmar ndi Turkmenistan. Malinga JP Morgan, China akugula gasi ku Myanmar ndipo Central Asia pa $ 400 pa kiyubiki mamita 1,000. m.

ndalama

Pa kodi zinthu mpweya mgwirizano lonjezolo China? Kodi ndalama ndithu tidzalipira mafuta, anzathu a kum'mawa? mafunso awa chidwi cha mbali ndi adani a pangano. Pambuyo kusainira mgwirizanowo, akatswiri anayamba kuneneratu kusintha mu chuma padziko lonse. Yosalala achire kumangidwa boma US Russian ndalama ndi mtanda malire chikhalidwe cha opaleshoni yoyamba, ikuchitika Shanghai VTB banki mu ndalama Chinese, analola kuti mfundo osamala kwambiri. Komabe, Bank of China pangano ndi Bank of Russia pa ntchito ndalama national m'midzi mwagwirizana ndi chilengedwe cha limodzi Chirasha Chinese bungwe mlingo ayenera kwambiri kusokoneza tycoons kumadzulo. Zonse zikuchitika chakuti mgwirizano waukulu anasaina pakati China ndi Russia, ilipiridwa osati ndalama. Ndicho chifukwa chake mtengo yomaliza ya mafuta Russian silinakwaniritsidwe anafotokoza. Pakuti US, izi kusintha kwa zinthu kungakhale nkhonya kwambiri.

Relations pakati Russia ndi China

Padziko lonse, China ndi Russia ndi zibwenzi njira mosiyana Europe ndi USA. Pali chizolowezi ena, malinga ndi zomwe dziko la azungu asintha kulikonse ali pabwino. M'dziko lino, dziko lonse mabungwe amayenera kugwiritsa ntchito mankhwala chomwecho, komanso kuganizira za chomwecho. Komabe, chizindikiro cha mphamvu monga Russia ndi China, ndi amphamvu kwambiri. Mayiko ameneŵa ayesa kuchotsa kuchokera chessboard ndale, kenako zimene iwowo. States ayamba kuteteza ufulu ufulu ndi umunthu wawo. China ndi Russia recreate danga chawo, ndipo izi azimuth zakale zomwe ukugwira ntchito padziko lonse. Ndipo lingaliro limeneli si mtengo zofunika zimene zimaphatikizapo Russian pangano ndi China. chuma mpweya - ndi mfundo ina wamba kukhudzana pakati pa maiko awiri akumanga asapita zochokera mgwirizano mtendere ndi kukhulupirirana.

Pomaliza

Takambirana andale ndi azachuma mipata yaikulu anapereka mgwirizano mpweya ndi China kwa dziko lathu. Ubwino ndi kuipa kwa pangano ayenera imawunikidwa mu zakhala zazikulu za citukuko akubwera. Ndithudi, "Gazprom" salandira mwamsanga ku zoletsedwa izi zikuluzikulu. Koma nkhawa adzatha ntchito msika njira; kuchidziwa ndalama zotentha ndi okondedwa athu kum'mawa ntchito imeneyi (pasadakhale malipiro a ntchito yomanga payipi ndi madola biliyoni 25); kulenga zomangamanga yaikulu yopanga ndi mayendedwe a gasi ndipo motero kutsitsimutsa mmene chuma chikuyendera ku Far East. Funso la mtengo wa katundu Russian mpweya udakalipo ndi vuto ena ofufuza chuma. Komabe, mu nthawi yayitali "pluses" mu mgwirizano mpweya ndi China zambiri kuposa "kuipa". Choncho kaya - nthawi adzatiuza.