Ndi Mwina makonzedwe ndi mmene kuwerengera molondola chiyani?

Nthawi zambiri mu moyo takumana ndi mfundo imene mukufuna kuti aone kuthekera pakutchulidwa chochitika chilichonse. Ndiyenera kugula lotale tikiti kapena ayi, kodi pansi pa mwana wachitatu m'banja, kapena mawa mitambo mvula kachiwiri - zitsanzo zimenezi ambirimbiri. Pankhani losavuta, chiwerengero cha zotsatira zake zabwino kugawidwa ndi chiwerengero cha zochitika. Ngati njuga tikiti kuwina 10, ndipo okwana 50, mwayi chotenga mphoto wofanana 10/50 = 0.2, mwachitsanzo 20 Versus 100. Koma zoyenera kuchita kukachitika kuti pali zochitika angapo, ndipo yogwirizana ndi mzake? Pankhaniyi, ndife chidwi si kophweka, ndipo Mwina makonzedwe. Kodi mtundu wa mtengo ndi mmene kuchita masamu - izo basi anaphimba m'nkhani ino.

maganizo

Makonzedwe Mwina - mwayi yatsoka chochitika ina, malinga chochitika china akhudzana ndi zachitika kale. Taganizirani chitsanzo yosavuta kuponya ndalama. Pamene kulimbitsa kulibe, ndiye mwayi wa mitu kugwa kapena michira adzakhala yemweyo. Koma ngati ndalama kasanu mu mzere anapita manja ndi kuyembekezera kugwirizana 6, 7, makamaka kubwereza 10 cha wotereyo itha n'kosathandiza. Ndi aliyense mobwerezabwereza nthawi imfa ya mphungu, mwayi wa michira akukulira, ndipo m'kupita kwanthawi akadali adzagwa.

Dongosolo la Mwina makonzedwe

Tiyeni tsopano kuthana ndi mmene mtengo uwu ndi kuchita masamu. Ife potanthauza ndi B mwambo woyamba ndi wachiwiri mwa A. Ngati mwayi wa zosayembekezereka mu sanali ziro, ndiye wokongola anthu aone kuti pali zotsatirazi:

P (A | B) = P (AB) / P (B), momwe:

• P (A | B) - okwana Mwina makonzedwe;
• P (AB) - Mwina co-yatsoka zochitika A ndi B;
• P (B) - Mwina mwambo B.

Pang'ono akatembenuka kupeza chiŵerengero P (AB) = P (A | B) P * (B). Ndipo ngati tigwiritsa ntchito njira kupatsidwa ulemu, n'zotheka tikuona chilinganizo cha mankhwala ndi ntchito nambala owonjezera a zochitika:

P (A _{1, 2, 3,} ... A _n) = P (A ₁ | A ₂ ... A _n) * P (A ₂ | A ₃ ... A _n) * P ₍₃ | A ₄ ... A _N ) ... P _(n-1 | _N A) * P _(n).

mchitidwe

Kukhala kosavuta kuthana ndi mmene masamu makonzedwe Mwina chochitika, taganizirani angapo zitsanzo. Tiyerekeze pali mbale imene pali 8 7 chokoleti ndi timbewu. Zimafanana kukula ndi mosintha consecutively anatulutsa awiri a iwo. pali kuthekera kuti iwo adzakhala chokoleti chiyani? Ife anayamba kalembedwe. Ndipo tiyeni chifukwa zikutanthauza kuti choyamba chokoleti maswiti, okwana Mu - wachiwiri wokoma chokoleti. Ndiye ife tilowa zotsatirazi:

P (A) = P (B) = 8/15

P (A | B) = P (B | A) = 7/14 = 1/2,

P (AB) = 8/15 × 1/2 = 4/15 ≈ 0,27

Taganiziraninso chitsanzo china. Tinene kuti muli ndi banja ziwiri mwana, ndipo ife tikudziwa kuti mwana mmodzi ndi mtsikana. Kodi Mwina makonzedwe kuti anyamata makolo izi panobe? Monga momwe zinalili m'mbuyomu, tiyeni tiyambire ndi ena kalembedwe. Tiyeni P (B) - n'kutheka kuti banja mtsikana mmodzi, P (A | B) - Mwina kuti mwana wachiwiri ndi mtsikana F (AB) - mwayi kuti banja la atsikana awiri. Tsopano ife kupanga kuwerengetsera lapansi. Pakhoza kukhala 4 osakaniza zosiyana za ana aamuna ndi aakazi ndipo nthawi yomweyo mu nkhani imodzi yokha (pamene banja anyamata awiri), atsikana kukhala mwa ana. Choncho Mwina P (B) = 3/4 ndi P (AB) = 1/4. Ndiye zotsatirazi chilinganizo wathu, ife kupeza:

P (A | B) = 1/4: 3/4 = 1/3.

Kutanthauzira zotsatira zake zingakhale izi: ngati ife sanaidziwe zokhudza munda B mmodzi wa ana, mwayi wa atsikana awiri adzakhala 25 ndi 100. Koma popeza tikudziwa kuti mwana ndi mtsikana, n'zotheka kuti palibe anyamata m'banja, kukula kwa wina lachitatu.