Kodi n'chiyani chidzachitikire yuro? The Mapa kwa yuro

Anthu ambiri Lekani kudabwa zimene zidzachitika kwa yuro posachedwapa. The vuto wosakhazikika chuma dziko kumachititsa anthu kufunafuna njira kusunga ndalama zawo, ndi kutembenuka mu ndalama zakunja monga mmodzi wa malangizo zotheka. Tiganizira mfundo yakuti akatswiri sali mofulumira kuti maulosi tsopano, chifukwa chakuti ambiri mu miyezi sikisi chatha anali kulakwitsa.

Kulimbikitsa a dola ndi yuro

Mu March 2015, akatswiri ambiri amanena kulimbitsa dola ndi yuro. Panali zolosera kuti ndi 2017 ndalama US amadziwa ofanana ndi amene European. Ngakhale pullback, amene ankatha kuona lonse wa April, zinthu sanabadwe okhazikika. Kunena kuti mphamvu zoipa yuro, potsiriza anasintha, ndi molawirira kwambiri.

Chiyambi cha May zinali zodzaza kwa ndalama European ndi malonda pa 1.1. mabungwe World monga Goldman Sachs, Barclays ndi BNP Paribas, ananena kuti "European" lidzafika izi chikalata cha mtengo kokha mapeto a 2015. More chidaliro Mapa kwapatsidwa mwa oimira Wells Fargo, limafotokoza pa mlingo wa 1,22. Mukhoza kulankhula za wapawiri-angakuchitireni. mbali ziwiri ankaona: dontho kwa mlingo wa 2-hletnego osachepera ndi kukwera kwa mtengo wa 1,22.

chuma European

Mu zoyambirira za 2015, akatswiri kuyembekezera kukula kwa 1-2% GDP. Pakuti Europe, chithunzi ichi tinganene kuti kuposa positive. Anatsekula ndi yuro zabwino zanyengo kuyembekezera zizindikiro zazikulu za citukuko. mlingo uwu ulova mkati 9,5%, amene posachedwapa anali lili pa nambala okha manambala awiri ndi kufufuma pa mlingo wa 1%.

Kugwa kwa yuro ndi akatswiri dola kugwirizana ndi chitukuko yogwira ya chuma cha America kwa zaka ziwiri zapitazi. Ngakhale kukula ankayembekezera yuro mu zaka zingapo zotsatira, mlingo ali adamuwumiriza ndi zifukwa zambiri lero. Tinganene kuchepetsa voliyumu ya mafakitale ku Germany ndi m'mayiko ena zikuluzikulu. vuto zobisika chitukuko m'goli wa limati membala EU. kumpoto lero yekha kubwezeretsedwa patapita stagnation yaitali.

Kugwa kwa ndalama ya yuro chifukwa cha ntchito Mario Dragi

Mario Draghi mu mawu ake otsiriza masika mobwerezabwereza ananena kuti akufuna kuchitapo miyezo kuchepetsa ngongole anthu. Izi sangakhoze koma bwanji yuro. Agency oimira Morgan Stanley kuti kachitidwe zoipa adzakhala anthu amapereka mwa wina ndi wachibale omasukirana m'dera European malonda, komanso kuli mavuto deflationary. Iwo analemba nkhani outflow ya ndalama mbiri-mtundu, kumene atenge mbali ya ndalama yuro ndalama.

EU ubwenzi ndi Russia

Dziwani chakuti EU ali ndi kudalira ena pa mpweya kunja kwa Russia, komanso mfundo za chuma m'dziko la Chitaganya cha Russia. Mavoliyumu imports mpweya ndi kuchepetsedwa lero mogwirizana ndi ziletso, amene zoika kungasokoneze limati membala EU. Ngakhale zikuchikazi, yuro, malinga Zoneneratu wa akatswiri a dziko kwa nthawi yaitali sadzakhala kukula. Makampani salinso ndikuyembekeza kulimbikitsa ndalama European. Monga akatswiri amanena, "nyengo dollar ndi pachimake." Chinthu chokha n'lakuti kuyembekezera - izi zimasokoneza ntchito za boma American, limene adzasunga mlingo wa ndalama national pa enaake.

Poona funso la chimene chidzachitikira yuro posachedwapa, akatswiri ambiri akuyesetsa kukakamiza ndondomeko kumene nkhaniyi Greece. Akatswiri dziko bungwe Stratfor kuganizira yachiwiriyo okha zochitika zina:

• Greece akhoza kusiya zone yuro ndi Germany aitane chilemba German. Ichi ndi chimodzi mwa Zoneneratu ambiri olakwika a EU, chimene adzatumiza awiri "EUR / USD" kwa kusambira kutali kum'mwera. Ndiye pali chiopsezo cha kugwa lathunthu la ndalama European.
• Yachiwiri - kupitiriza kwa mgwirizano ndi Greece, ndi Germany. chithandizo kuperekedwa kwa States, si destabilize chuma padziko lonse EU, koma kusokoneza kofulumiraku kukula sadzakhala chochitika zoopsa.

"Chimodzi dollar - wina yuro" monga mmodzi wa zitsanzo zina

Poganizira funso la chomwe chidzachitike ndi yuro mu zaka zingapo zotsatira, akatswiri a Goldman anafuulira mlingo kuwombola pa mlingo wa US $ 0.9 = 1 yuro ndi 2017. Akatswiri sitileka kulankhula za kuopa deflation ndi pafupifupi ziro, ndi m'madera ena ndi kukula zoipa chuma. Chiyambireni cha 2015 ku Ulaya ndalama national anagwa 2.6% ndi ndalama za maiko 9. Kuti parity ndi dollar akhala yochepa Pafupifupi 15%.

Ndi ofunika ponena kuti yuro kale pansi pa mlingo ofanana ndi ndalama US mu 2012. Chakumapeto 2014, yuro wataya pafupifupi 12% kufunika kwake. Malinga Chris Iggo, mutu wa yogwira ndalama kampani AXA Investment Management, parity chingapezeke, ngati malamulo ndalama za Kukhuta ndi ECB kukhala sichinasinthe. Ife tinatchula kuti m'dzinja 2014 ECB anatsitsa mlingo pa madipoziti ndi 0.2%. Kumatikumbutsabe Posts Draghi kugula European nsinga yekha ndi kugwira gawo lotsatira la malamulo a easing kachulukidwe kuonekera lero mu EUR / USD dontho mtundu.

kubwezeretsedwa zosakhalitsa

Masiku ano pullback yuro kumpoto - ndi chotsatira chenicheni cha zochita chojambulidwa ECB kumapeto a 2014. Tikuyankhula zokhudza kuchepetsa mlingo chidwi 0,15% kuti 0,05% ndipo kuchepa chiwongola dzanja pa madipoziti, anatchula kale. Izi kanjedza mbiri otsika kwa zone yuro analimbikitsa mabanki mwachangu akukongoza weniweni, osati chuma gawo. asanu okha miyezi ingapo, pambuyo pa kukhazikitsidwa kwa njira kwambiri kwa ECB ndi chuma European anayamba achire pang'onopang'ono. Kumbukirani kuti palibe kuchepetsa anaganiza mitengo. Zoterezi ankaoneka zotheka chuma asanu okha anacheza makumi asanu ndi aŵiri.

Yuro ndi Russian ndalama national

Ngakhale kuti yuro ndi zidzakhalira dollar amakhalabe zoipa, chiŵerengero wa ruble / yuro kudzakhala sizitero. Ndalama European motsutsa ruble kwa kanthawi kochepa adzapitiriza kukula. The chifooke chuma ku Ulaya ndi maziko a Russia angathe yabwino kwambiri. zinthu zimachitika chifukwa cha zochitika kunachitika msika mafuta dziko. Limodzi ndi kugwa mitengo mafuta adzayamba yuro. Ngakhale kuwuka ziliri pa mitengo mafuta, akatswiri akuyembekezerabe kwa mbadwa za mitengo mafuta mpaka January otsika, kotero inu mukhoza kudalira kulumpha lachiwiri la kukula yuro mu Russia. Musaiwale kuti Mapa ndi Mapa, ndi mosavuta ndi mkulu kuti ruble adzayamba zolimbitsira lapansi.

Kodi mtengo yuro, malinga ndi akatswiri a bwino dziko?

malingaliro Katswiri amasiyana ndi nkhani yuro, ndi yodziwika ndi chidaliro awo. Deutsche Bank amakhulupirira mu kugwa m'munsimu parity ndi kusiya njira pa $ 0,95 pa yuro pofika cha 2017. Mapa George Saravelos wolemba chimaposa chakuti mu 2000 yuro / dollar ankagulitsa pa 0,8300. Chifukwa dongosolo yoweyula wa kusinthasintha pa intervals wa zaka zisanu ndi inayi, Deutsche Bank akatswiri sindikuwona kanthu zinthu zoopsa.

British banki HSBC amapereka kusintha pang'ono kwa yuro. bungwe ndalama, akatswiri akukhulupirira kuti pofika kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2015, yuro ndi dollar adzakhala kusinthanitsa pa 1,19. Barclays oimira woyanjidwa mlingo wa 1.1, amene masiku ano, koma Morgan Stanley akatswiri amafuna kuti muganize 1:14.

Pa nthawi, zovuta kunena, momwe zinthu yuro m'tsogolo. Lero mtengo si okhazikika zoona, ngati iye EU chuma pambuyo vutoli si mapeto a 2014, koma 2008-2009. Zovuta zinthu yoona sikusokoneza kukhulupirira akatswiri ambiri zingamuthandize m'tsogolo kwambiri unit ndalama European. Patsalanso kuti muwonekere zimene zidzachitike ndi yuro zina.