Zosintha zosakhulupirika. International Association of Swaps ndi Zowonjezera

Kusintha kwachinyengo kosakhulupirika sikukhala mbiri yabwino pakati pa akuluakulu azachuma. Kumva mobwerezabwereza maganizo omwe CDS imasokoneza chithunzi chachuma mwa njira zolakwika. Kodi ichi ndi chifukwa chiyani kuwonjezeka kwa mtengo wawo kuli kovuta kwambiri kwa ochita malonda?

Mbiri ya maonekedwe

Choyamba chachinyengo chomwe chinasinthidwa mu mbiriyakale chinawonekera mu 1990 chifukwa cha zomwe akatswiri a Bankers Trust ndi JP Morgan anachita. Kufunika kwa maonekedwe ake kunali chifukwa cha kutetezedwa ku zoopsa za ngongole zazikulu zomwe zimaperekedwa kwa makasitomala a kampani. Poyamba, chidacho chinali ndi ndalama zochepa, ndiye kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 1990 zinali zofanana kale ndi madola mabiliyoni mazana angapo, ndipo tsopano zakula mofulumira mpaka madola 28 trillion.

Kodi amawathandiza bwanji?

Ngati mumalongosola zachitsulo chosinthika pa zala zanu, ndiye mtundu wapadera wa inshuwalansi, womwe wogula angapereke kwa mwini ndalama kuti pakhale chiwopsezo cha kusakhulupirika kwa wobwereka pa malipiro a chiwongoladzanja. Mitengo ya inshuwalansiyi imayesedwa mu zana la zana kapena pazifukwa zofunikira.

Mwachitsanzo, ngati ngongole yosasinthika ikugulitsidwa pa mtengo wa mfundo zana, zimatanthawuza kuti kutetezedwa kwa madola 10 miliyoni za malonda kudzawononga zikwi khumi. Kugulitsa kotereku (kusinthanitsa) kumapereka chitsimikizo chotsimikizika pa mtengo wokwanira.

Zimagwira bwanji ntchito?

Chilichonse cha credit default swaps cha ku Ulaya chimachitika ndi "mgwirizano waukulu", womwe unaperekedwa ndi International Swapsand Derivatives Association (ISDA). Amagwirizanitsa mabanki onse akuluakulu a mabanki, komanso mabungwe ena omwe amagulitsa mabungwe ambiri. Makhalidwe amenewa ndi ofunikira kwambiri, popeza ndalama zosasinthika za ngongole sizimapezeka pazokhazikitsidwa. Zowonadi, zimakhala ngati zotsatira za mgwirizano pakati pa ogulitsa ndi ogula, omwe omwe ali ndi udindo wogulitsa mabanki ndi mabanki a zamalonda amachita.

CDS imagwira ntchito bwanji?

International Association of Swaps ndi Derivatives ili ndi makomiti asanu a chigawo chamtundu, omwe ali ndi mabanki aakulu ndi mabanki. Izi zikuchitika chifukwa chakuti lingaliro la ngongole ndi zosavuta ndizovuta kudziwa. Komiti zotchulidwa pamwambayi ndi omaliza omanga nkhani pankhaniyi.

Izi zimagwira ntchito motere. Wogulitsa aliyense ali ndi mwayi wotumiza pempho kwa komiti, yomwe idzaperekedwa mosalephera. Kenaka, tidzakambirana ngati pali zochitika za ngongole ndi ngati ntchito ingapangidwe.

Kusintha mu chuma chamakono - nchiyani chingawonongeke?

Popeza chida ichi chachuma chiri ndi mgwirizano, pali zifukwa zambiri zomwe muyenera kuziganizira, ndi malangizo ambiri. Chinthu chofunikira kwambiri ndi chakuti credit default swaps ndi chikhalidwe malinga ndi wobwereka kapena katundu. Ngati chuma chenichenicho chasintha dzina lake, zotsatira zake zingakhale kukana kulipira CDS. Ndalama zambiri za amalonda anakumana ndi vutoli pakayambiriro kwa mavuto azachuma, pamene bankruptcy ya mabanki ena akuluakulu adachitika.

Masiku ano, mabanki ambiri amakondwera kupeza zida zatsopano zachuma kuti athe kugulitsa zinthu zawo. Ichi ndi chifukwa cha kutchuka kwa ngongole swaps. Monga momwe akatswiri amanenera, kusasinthika kusinthika pa ngongole ndi kofunikira kwambiri mkhalidwe wamakono.

CDS ku USA

Kwa zaka zingapo zapitazi credit default swaps akhala chofunika kwambiri mu US, zomwe zimafotokozedwa ndi kuwonjezeka kokwera ngongole ngozi. Popeza chida ichi sichikulamulidwa ndi kusinthanitsa kwa masitolo kapena mabungwe a boma, n'kosatheka kupeza zambiri zowonjezera pazomwe zilipo. Kodi ISDA ikuyesa bwanji izi, ndalama zowonjezereka zomwe zimagulitsidwa kusinthana pambuyo pavuto la 2008, ndipo tsopano vutoli likutha.

Poyambirira, opeza ndalama ochokera kumayiko osiyanasiyana padziko lapansi anali ndi malingaliro ambiri okhudza kusakhulupirika swaps. Zotsatira za izi ndizo kugwa kwa mabungwe akuluakulu azachuma. Mabanki ambiri akuluakulu ndi makampani a inshuwalansi adawonongeka chifukwa cha ntchito ndi CDS.

Kusintha kwachinyengo kumasintha ku Russia

Tiyeni tione zomwe zikuchitika lero. Onani kuti ku Russia credit default swaps sanapambane kutchuka komweko monga kunja. Izi zikufotokozedwa ndi mavuto ena omwe amayenera kuthetsedwa mothandizidwa ndi zomwe zinachitikira mayiko ena. Monga momwe malonda a swaps amatha kukhalira pang'onopang'ono, kufalitsa kwawo pamsika ku Russia ndi kovuta kwambiri.

Chinthu chachikulu chomwe chimalepheretsa kufalitsa kwa CDS ku Russia ndizomwe zimakhazikitsidwa msika wogulitsa. Ndipotu, kufunika kwa ndalama zowongola ngongole kumatulutsa ndalama zambiri, ndipo izi zimapatsa mabanki mwayi wokhala ndi zifukwa zawo zokhudzana ndi mitengo ndi mawu. Msika wa kukopa ku Russia uli ndi chizoloŵezi china chogwirizana ndi chitukuko cha ngongole zazing'ono zomwe zimapereka mlingo wokhazikika. Momwemonso, mlingo woyandama umapezeka pokhapokha ngongole za nthawi yaitali (kuchokera chaka chimodzi kapena kuposerapo), ndipo ngongoleyi ingaperekedwe kwa okhaokha ndi mbiri yabwino ya ngongole. Kuphatikizanso, mabanki akuluakulu okha ndi omwe amagwira ntchitoyi. Zonsezi zikuwonetsa kuti pali mavuto omwe amachititsa kuti pakhale mavuto . Kuonjezera apo, malingaliro apangidwe a msika wa CDS ku Russia akhoza kukhala ndi zopinga mu mawonekedwe a ziganizidwe ndi zochokera, zomwe zakhala zikuwonetsedwa m'mayiko ena ndipo zakhala ndi zotsatirapo zoipa.

Ngakhale kuti kuyang'ana kwa ngongole ya swaps yosakhulupirika, monga mbiri yawo, ndi yovuta kwambiri, omwe akugulitsa msika wa Russia ali ndi chiyembekezo chokhudzidwa. Izi ndi zomveka, popeza ogulitsa ngongole adzatha kuchepetsa mavuto a ngongole, komanso kumasula ndalama zosungidwa ngongole. Izi zidzatheka chifukwa chakuti atagula kusinthanitsa, chiopsezo cha kusabwerera kwa ndalama chidzanyamulidwa ndi munthu wina. Zonsezi m'tsogolomu zingathandize kuti msika wa ngongoleyo ukhale wochepa. Ogulitsa, nawonso, adzakhala ndi mwayi wopeza ndalama zowonjezera potulutsa zowonjezera.

Chotsatira cha izi zonse chitha kuchitidwa zotsatirazi: credit default swaps ingayambitsidwe bwino pamsika wa Russia, koma pa izi zidzakhala zofunikira kukhazikitsa ndi kusinthasintha malonda awo. Kuwonjezera pamenepo, m'pofunika kukhazikitsa zikhalidwe kuti zikhale zofuna zambiri mumtundu wa CDS ngati chida chokongoletsera chosasinthika, osati ngati chinthu chobwezeretsa.