Pamene Russia Adzagonjetsa vutoli? katswiri maganizo

The Russian chuma mavuto njira zikuchitika kwa zaka zingapo. Mwachibadwa anthu ambiri a dziko nkhawa ndi kufunsa ngati Russia Adzagonjetsa mavutowo, ndi pamene izo zikuchitika. Ndipotu anthu bwino zimadalira yankho lake. Dziwani izi, pamene Russia Adzagonjetsa mavutowo. Katswiri maganizo adzatithandiza ife izi.

Kuwerengera

Pamaso akusandulika kukambirana pamene Russia Adzagonjetsa vutoli, tiyeni tipeze kwenikweni mmene zinayambira ndipo anayamba mu dziko. Itithandiza kudziwa njira yochokera kwa izo.

Pambuyo zachuma padziko lonse vuto la 2008 , chuma cha Russian mu 2010 kumayambiriro, anayamba pang'onopang'ono achire. Koma kale mu 2013 pakhala ena zolakwikazo, chofunika kwambiri chomwe chinali ena outflow likulu ku dziko. Komabe, kuli kwakuti zodabwitsazi, ngakhale chikhalidwe cha vutoli nawonso kwambiri m'mbuyo chuma cha Russia sakanakhoza. Choncho, maganizo cha 2014 sadandaula pa lonse.

Zambiri ogwetsa mphamvu pa chuma ndi dziko anali ziletso pa za chuma zoyikidwa mu 2014, West, makamaka kuchepa mphamvu mitengo mafuta zomwe zinachitika pa nthawi yomweyo. Akatswiri a zachuma mosiyana amanena lonse amadza chifukwa cha zinthu zimenezi pa aggravation cha vutoli, koma ambiri a iwo amavomereza kuti tizikumbukira ndithu.

ziletso pa za chuma m'mayiko a Azungu atumikira monga chokhumudwitsa kwa kukhazikitsa angapo mapulogalamu limodzi okha tanthauzo zida wofunikila chitukuko cha mafakitale Russian, ndi kuthekera kwa ndalama kunja amakampani zoweta ndi mabanki, komanso kwambiri kuchuluka kuchuluka kwa likulu outflow. Poyankha, boma la Russia akhala anayambitsa antisanktsii, amenenso anali ndi zotsatira zoipa za chuma Russian. Makamaka, kufunika kupempha ogulitsa latsopano la ulimi. Komabe, akatswiri ambiri amavomereza kuti yankho yaitali boma Russian pamaso pa pulogalamu wogwira mtima zimathandiza chitukuko cha ulimi mu dziko.

A zimakhudza kwambiri pa chuma Russian anali kuchepa lakuthwa mu mitengo golide wakuda. Mpaka pakati pa 2014 mtengo wa mafuta likunena kuposa mlingo wa $ 100 mbiya ndi kutha kwa chaka chomwe anachepa pafupifupi $ 55 pa mbiya. Mu 2015, kugwa patsogolo, ndipo kumayambiriro 2016 mtengo anafika osachepera, akuponya pansipa $ 30 mbiya.

Kuchepetsa mtengo wa mafuta osati mavuto kudzazidwa za bajeti, koma kunathandiza kuti kugwa kwa ruble wachibale ndalama dziko. Against dola kuyambira chiyambi cha 2014 ku chiyambi cha 2016 ruble ali depreciated ndi nthawi zoposa 2.5. Komabe, pambuyo pake, chifukwa nyamuka mitengo mafuta, ndalama Russian anatha kupambana kumbuyo malo pang'ono.

Kugwa kwa ruble ndi ali chikwiyire kuwonjezeka mu kufufuma, kuwonjezeka kwambiri mu mtengo wa katundu, komanso kuchepa kwa ndalama weniweni. Komanso, mavuto azachuma akhoza kuchepetsa voliyumu ya GDP ndi mabala monga ochuluka a ntchito.

Palibe zodabwitsa kuti, chifukwa cha anthu tsopano nkhawa kwambiri funso: "Pamene Russia kutuluka mavutowo?"

Zoneneratu boma

Choyamba, tiyeni tipeze, pamene Russia Adzagonjetsa mavuto, monga mwa akuluakulu a boma.

Pakati pa 2015, Minister Finance Anton Siluanov anapereka Mapa ake pa nkhaniyi. Iye ananena kuti Russia kutuluka mavutowo kumayambiriro kwa 2015-2016 a. Monga mukuonera, kutalika yake ya nthawi ikupita koma mmene chuma chikuyendera amakhalabe ndi katundu. Pa nthawi yomweyo tisaiwale kuti, chifukwa nyamuka mitengo mafuta kotala woyamba wa 2016, koma pakhala ena mumaganiza positive.

A Mapa kwambiri kusamala kuti Russia Adzagonjetsa vutoli, anapereka Nduna ya Development Economic Aleksey Ulyukaev. Malinga ndi iye, kukula zachuma kokha kuchitika mu 2017, chifukwa mavuto adzatha mapeto a 2016. Komabe, poyerekeza ndi udindo wa akatswiri ena, Ulyukayev Mapa ndi chidaliro ndithu.

Mutu wa Bank ku Central la Russia ndi odziwika zoweta zachuma Elvira Nabiullina, zochokera akatswiri amanena bungwe lotsogozedwa ndi iye, anati vutoli Adzatsagana ndi chuma Russian mpaka mapeto a 2016. mitengo kukula tingayembekezere okha 2018, ndi mlingo wake chatha adzamasulidwa ku 2019. Zimenezi Nabiullina kulumikiza ndi kukhazikika mafuta otsika mtengo. Koma kusintha mu mtengo wa golide wakuda mwina kwambiri kusintha banki chapakati zanyengo chitukuko zina za chuma cha dziko.

Stepan Demura: poipa kwambiri

Wosiyana maganizo a udindo Russian boma pa funso "ngati Russia akhoza kutuluka mavutowo" ali ndi katswiri wodziwika Stepan Demura. Panthawiyo, iye ananeneratu padziko lonse ndalama vuto la 2008, pamene ambiri mwa akatswiri ena n'komwe za mphamvu yake.

Stepan Demura limanena kuti mavuto kokha kukulirakulira mu 2016. Iye akuneneratu kuti mwa mwezi wa chaka mtengo wa dola mosavuta kuwolokera chilemba cha rubles 125 ndipo pamwamba. Chifukwa chachikulu mavuto mu masiku Russian chuma Stepan Demura akuti kudalira kwambiri mapangidwe a boma bajeti azipereke pa mlingo mphamvu. Malinga ndi iye, Russia sadzatha kutuluka mavutowo patali chotero, izo sanabadwe kugonjetsa kudalira izi, ndipo kwa kanthawi kochepa, kuli kovuta.

Koma ndi bwino kuganizira kuti Stepan Demura akhala kudziwika kwa Zoneneratu ake sizikuyenda bwino kwambiri ponena za mkhalidwe wa zachuma Russian. Mwamwayi, ambiri a iwo akukwaniritsidwa.

Slava Rabinovich: kubera "wakuda tsekwe"

Ndimagwirizana ndi Stepanom Demuroy, pamene Russia kudzathandiza kuthetsa mavuto, Slava Rabinovich, amene ndi zachuma wotchuka ndi katswiri wa zachuma. Ndi ankaona kuti Russia akuyembekezera patsogolo yekha akuchuluka zinthu. Rabinovich ananena kuti adakali funso lofunika ngati Russia kudzathandiza kuthetsa vuto la dziko, mwa mawu a ndale, ndi lero.

Slava Rabinovich limanena kuti Russia amafuna kubera "Mbalame ya Chinsansa", ndiye mavuto adzatenga lonse moona lalikulu. Mawu amenewa amanena za chinthu zoipa tanthauzo lalikulu kuti akhoza kuyamba unyolo zimene zotsatira domino, kuwononga dongosolo lonse la kasamalidwe.

Mwachitsanzo, mu nkhani ya bankirapuse ya m'modzi wa Russian mabanki systemically zofunika akhoza anayamba ndondomeko ya bankirapuse angapo a zofunika za malonda chuma cha charo chopatsa lolimbikitsa kwambiri ya vutoli.

Njira mwa mavuto kwa Russian Slava Rabinovich panthawi imeneyi sakuona. Koma tiyenera kudziwa kuti umatsutsana enieni boma pano, kotero mfundo mwachidziwikire kupereka chiwerengero chapadera cha subjectivity.

Kudrin: mndandanda wa miyeso kuthetsa vutoli

maganizo ake pa funso, pamene Russia Adzagonjetsa mavutowo, ndi nduna ya zachuma ya Russia kale, ndipo tsopano odalirika Katswiri Alexei Kudrin. Mu mawu ake posachedwapa, iye ananena kuti vutoli peaked mu 2015. Komabe, iye ananena kuti simuyenera kumasuka, chifukwa vutoli udzamvedwa kwa nthawi yaitali koma.

Specific tsiku kuchoka komaliza kwa mavuto Kudrin akuitana. Koma iye ananena kuti kudzakhala kovuta kwambiri kapenanso kosatheka popanda yankho la mavuto enieni. Kudrin ali ndi maganizo momwe kutuluka ndi mavuto azachuma mu Russia. Choyamba, sitepe kwa ofunika chuma Alexei Leonidovich anati kusintha kwa BOMA, yomwe pa nthawiyo ndi operewera.

Nawonso mbali yofunika umatchedwa kupanga ubwenzi wawo pakati pa Boma, magulu ndi mabizinesi. Chinthu china cha olimba ndalama pagulu - kuukitsa zaka zopuma pantchito. Zodabwitsa ndizakuti, mu nkhani iyi, ine ndikugwirizana Kudrin ndi kumachita Minister Finance Anton Siluanov.

Tikumbukenso kuti mawu a Alexei Kudrin Russian chuma m'tsogolo osati kale ali sizikuyenda bwino kuposa panopa.

Maganizo a akatswiri ena zoweta

Satsatira maganizo chidaliro boma la Russia kuthetsa mavuto mu zaka zikubwerazi, Igor Nikolaev, amene ndi mkulu wa Institute for Development Strategic. Komabe, sewero lake la zinthu akadali si monga sizikuyenda bwino monga Stepan Demura ndi Slava Rabinovich. Igor Nikolayev amakhulupirira kuti njira yotulukira vutoli likhoza kubwera ndi osakaniza zinthu zina. Kuti iwo amalemba kuwonjezeka kwambiri mitengo mafuta, zochotsa ndi ziletso za West kwa Russia ndi kusintha mwamsanga pa dongosolo ulamuliro zachuma. Kukachitika kuti chimodzi cha zinthu izi sizikuthandiza, kulankhula za kugonjetsa zovuta ndi molawirira kwambiri. Nthawi yeniyeni imene zinthu zonse zitatu zimapezeka, sikutheka kuti dzina, kuyambira zimatengera osati pa zoweta komanso njira kunja.

Akatswiri Kr ndi HSE apanga zitsanzo ziwiri zikuchitika m'tsogolo. Mmodzi wa iwo, mtengo wa mafuta adzakhala pafupi $ 35 pa mbiya. The Tiyerekezenso adzatenge kuwonjezeka mu mtengo wa golide wakuda ndi madola 45. Koma choyamba choncho wachiwiri, mpaka 2020, kadzakulakani kulankhula za preconditions kukula zachuma. Pa $ 35 pa mbiya, zomvetsa ndalama Russia adzakhala apamwamba kuposa pa mtengo wa $ 45.

Chiwerengero cha akatswiri yachilendo

Kumene, zoweta katswiri maganizo ndi boma akuluakulu pa nkhani ya mmene Russia ati kutuluka vutoli, chidwi kwambiri, koma kwa cholinga zambiri ziyenera a zinthu muyenera kuyang'ana mbali ya vutolo. Tiyeni tipeze malo a mabungwe dziko kutsogolera ndalama komanso akatswiri pa malo chuma Russian Federation a.

IMF limaneneratu anapitiriza kuchepa kwa chuma Russian mu 2016-2017. Ngakhale posachedwapa amaneneratu kuti mayiko mabungwe a zachuma anali kwambiri kwabasi kundiposa. Iwo ankanena kuti vutoli adzagonjetsedwa ndi mapeto a 2016. Ndipo mu 2017, chuma cha Russian ayenera kusonyeza kukula 1%.

Akatswiri pa nkhani bungwe Chinese "XINHUA" M'malo mwake, amakhulupirira kuti Russian Federation popanda vuto adzatha kuthetsa vutoli. Komanso si koyenera kufunsa aliyense: "Thandizani Russia mwa mavutowo" Iye ali ndithu angathe kupanga wokha. The prerequisites chachikulu ichi, akatswiri amakhulupirira China angathe yaikulu ya dzikoli, komanso umodzi wa anthu. Komabe, tsiku limene a akatswiri Sikuti.

Akatswiri mawunikidwe zipata za Germany, nayenso, khulupirirani kuti Russia amatha kukonza kupirira mavuto azachuma. Izi zidzachitika pamene mitengo mafuta kupita kachiwiri, limene, mogwirizana ndi dziko la Germany, ndi chodabwitsa mosalephera, amene ayenera ayenera mwamsanga pamene maiko OPEC adzabwera kwa mgwirizano. Russia osati chuma bata komanso kulimbitsa udindowo.

openda nyenyezi amanena

Inde, funso, pamene Russia Adzagonjetsa vutoli, maulosi a okhulupirira nyenyezi kuti ambiri a m'dziko mwathu muno si okhazikika, koma iwo ayenera anati mwachidule kukambirana nkhaniyi.

Mkazi wa nyenyezi odziwika Pavel Globa Tamara ndi katswiri wa maulosi, akunena kuti vutoli adzapitirira 2016. Ndipo iwo chiti osati Russia koma dziko lonse. Koma malinga ndi Tamara Globa, basi mavuto padziko lonse kuwononga akale dongosolo kuti dziko ndi mwayi waukulu kwa Russia kuti afike kutsogolo kuti, monga nyenyezi, ndipo zidzachitika m'tsogolo.

Wina amakangana odziwika - Fatima Hodueva, umene ndi finalist za "Nkhondo ya amizimu lapansi." Malinga ndi iye, ovuta kwambiri nthawi ya chuma Russian - mu 2015 - zapita. Komanso, zinthu zidzakhala zopanda ndi kukhazikika. A kusintha kwambiri zidzachitika m'chaka cha 2016.

Wotchuka Chibugariya mneneri Vanga maulosi awo kuti 2016 kudzakhala kovuta kwambiri kwa Russia. Komanso, dziko lonse kuphimba mavutowo. Koma kumapeto kwa chaka zinthu pa dziko ndipo dziko wolimba kwambiri.

Monga mukuonera, funso pamene Russia Adzagonjetsa vutoli, amizimu mayankho chidaliro ndithu. Tiyeni ndikuyembekeza kuti m'tsogolo adzakwaniritsidwa.

Zochita akhoza mavutowo

Akatswiri ambiri okonda amakhulupirira kuti Pamlingo yaikulu yadziko zinayambitsa dontho lakuthwa mu mitengo mafuta pa misika dziko. Boma la Russia akhoza kungotchula kokha kusonkhezera chinthu ichi, ndipo n'zokayikitsa mu manja ake zida kuti akhoza kwenikweni Jack kukwera mtengo wa golide wakuda.

Pa nthawi yomweyo, akatswiri amakhulupirira kuti n'zotheka kuthetsa vutoli ngati boma adzatenga angapo masitepe kusintha kasamalidwe ka chuma, adzapanga Russia dzi kwa malonda komanso minimizes mafuta kudalira za bajeti dziko.

Mantha ndi ziyembekezo

Akatswiri ambiri akuneneratu ndi yaitali mavuto azachuma mu Russia ndi chiyembekezo yosokoneza akutuluka izo. Pa oimira yemweyo nthawi ya boma, ndicho Anton Siluanov, Aleksey Ulyukaev ndi Elvira Nabiullina, imene olimba za moyo ndalama m'chaka 2017-2018. Ndi iwo mu umodzi, ngakhale kuti akatswiri ena akunja, makamaka, Chinese ndi German. Kotero kuti prerequisites zoziziritsira pakati Russia wamba mpaka pano. Komanso, akatswiri ena kuona zinthu ziliri m'madera angapo mwayi lolimbikitsa kwambiri za chuma cha dziko, ndipo linanena bungwe kwa udindo waukulu mu dziko. Patapita nthawi yamavuto koma mbali bwino zoipa, ndipo amapereka zinthu zambiri wapadera, amene ali osowa kwambiri.

Kulimbikitsa ndi maulosi a amizimu, koma iwo ayenera kusonyezedwa amawagwiritsa, monga okhulupirira nyenyezi amatsatira zimene awo akadali pa kufotokoza sayansi chododometsa.

Ambiri, m'dziko la Russia chokha kwa kuchoka ndi mwamsanga pa mavuto a dziko. Koma ayenera kukonzekera nkhani zachuma ndi ndalama yaitali. Pankhaniyi, ngakhale vutoli kumawakoka pa, tidzatha kukumana mosapsatira. Pamene iwo amati, chiyembekezo cha zabwino koma kukonzekera nyengo yoipa kwambiri.