Kitchin mkombero. Yochepa zachuma m'zinthu. Juglar mkombero. Kuznets mkombero

Kayendedwe ka chuma - mtengo fluctuation wa mankhwala aakulu m'banja kwa nthawi yaitali. kuchepa ichi kapena kuwonjezeka GDP amagwirizana ndi siteji ya chitukuko. Pali mitundu ingapo ya oscillations chotero, chomwe amasiyana nthawi zawo. Ambiri yochepa - Kitchin adzizungulira, nthawi imene - zaka 3-5. chuma ena nayenso anaphunzira funso la kusinthasintha aakulu kupanga. Ndalama komanso ndi m'zinthu Juglar, Kuznets ndi Kondratiev.

mawu Otsogolera

Mu njira ya chitukuko, monga chuma ndi nthawi mofulumira chitukuko ndi stagnation. Kitchin mkombero anafotokoza kusinthasintha yochepa. Kondratieff yoweyula amabisa theka kusintha atumwi. Lingaliro la kayendedwe ka ntchito m'njira chachikulu limatanthauza nyengo ya nthawi imene limapangidwa nthawi, m'modzi yekha wa kudza ndi kugwa, mukwaniritse ena. masitepe awiri awa n'kofunika. An chizindikiro cha chiyambi ndi mapeto a kuzungulira ndi kuchuluka kukula kwenikweni aakulu mankhwala zoweta. Nthawi zambiri kusinthasintha izi mu bizinesi ndi osadalirika ndithu.

Mbiri ya phunziroli

Lingaliro la mkombero chuma unakanizidwa ndi oimira sukulu zachikhalidwe. moyo wawo, kuchita, iwo anafotokoza ndi nkhondo ndi mikangano. Chawo choyamba kufufuza ndi Sismondi. ntchito yake wakhala wodzipereka kwa mantha a 1825 ku England, amene anali woyamba mavuto azachuma anachitika yamtendere. Sismondi ndi mnzake lake Robert Owen anawatcha iwo chifukwa cha overproduction ndi underconsumption, chifukwa disparities kapepala ndalama pakati pa anthu. Iwo anali mokomera boma alowererepo pa chuma ndi zokomera onse. Mumagulu maphunziro, ntchito yawo inali nthawi yomweyo otchuka. Komabe, pa lingaliro lakuti pansi-mowa chifukwa cha mavuto, pamenepo padzakhala kumangidwa odziwika bwino Keynesian sukulu. chiphunzitso Sismondi anayamba kupanga ndi Charles Dunoyer. Iye anayika patsogolo mfundo m'zinthu variable. Karl Marx anaona mavuto nthawi ngati vuto lalikulu kwa anthu capitalist ndipo ananeneratu ulimi chikominisi. Genri Dzhordzh otchedwa nkhambakamwa ndi dziko chinthu chachikulu chomwe recessions ndipo adati oyamba a msonkho imodzi pa chinthu kupanga.

mitundu m'zinthu

Mu 1860, French zachuma Klement Zhyuglyar udzadutsemo ndi kusinthasintha zachuma ndi pafupipafupi zaka 7-11. Yozef Shumpeter ankanena kuti iwo zigwirizana wa magawo anayi:

• Kukula. Pali kuwonjezeka mu mabuku kupanga kukwera mitengo, chiwongola dzanja kugwa.
• Crisis. Pa nthawi imeneyi, kutha kuphana katundu ndi mabizinesi ambiri ndi makampani akupita zinatha.
• Mavuto. Mitengo ndi kupanga mabuku kupitiriza adzagwa ndi chiwongola dzanja, mosiyana, ndi kukula.
• Kuchira. Kusinthana kukonzanso kuyamba kugwira ntchito kupyolera mitengo ndi ndalama kugwa.

Schumpeter zogwirizana ayambe zachuma ndi kukula kwa kupanga dzuwa, kudalira ogula tsogolo la kufunika akaphatikiza ndi mitengo. Mu pakati pa XX atumwi, iye anaganiza kufanizitsa wa m'zinthu kwa nthawi zawo. Pakati pawo:

• Kitchin mkombero. Pamafunika zaka 3 mpaka 5.
• Juglar mkombero. Kutalika kwake - zaka 7-11.
• Kuznets mkombero. Iwo amagwirizana ndi ndalama ku zomangamanga. Pamatenga zaka 15 mpaka 25.
• Kondrat'eva yoweyula kapena yaitali ndondomeko mkombero. Pamafunika kwa zaka 45 mpaka 60.

Lero, chidwi m'zinthu utachepa pang'ono. Ichi ndi chifukwa chakuti macroeconomics ano siligwirizana ndi maganizo oscillations zonse nthawi.

Kitchin mkombero

Pamafunika za 40 miyezi. Izi kusinthasintha yochepa anali woyamba ankafufuza ndi Joseph Kitchin pa 1920. chifukwa wake ankaona kwanthawi afika kayendedwe ka mfundo zotsogolera kuzengereza Makampani opanga zisankho zawo. Makampani anatani kusintha zinthu malonda ndi kuwonjezeka kupanga. Izi zimachititsa magwiritsidwe zonse ntchito ndi likulu. Chifukwa cha zimenezi, patapita nthawi yina, msika amakhala anasefukira ndi katundu. khalidwe lawo chatsitsa chifukwa lamulo la Nena. Kuuza kugwa, mtengo - nsalu yomweyo anayamba kuwunjikana mu malo. Patapita nthawi zina, kampani wayamba ndichepe zokolola. Napereka Kitchin mkombero.

Zimayambitsa ndi zotsatira

Kitchin m'zinthu zachuma kugwirizana ndi kusowa akanatha ziyenera yomweyo ya zinthu kumsika. Makampani amafunika pamene kuyamba kuwonjezera kupanga ndi kusankha kuchepetsa voliyumu yake. Kuchedwa ndi chifukwa chakuti mabwana musati yomweyo kuzindikira kuti apambana tsopano pa msika - okwanira kapena kulamula. Ndiye ayenera Amafufuzanso mfundo. Zikupereka ndi kukhazikitsa njira kuchita. Osati mophweka yomweyo kupeza antchito atsopano kapena chotsa achikulirewo. Choncho, yochepa Kitchin mkombero kugwirizana ndi akuchedwa deta ndi processing zambiri.

Yozef Kitchin: Chidule

Iye ndi katswiri British m'munda wa ziwerengero ndi wabizinesi. Yozef Kitchin ntchito makampani migodi ku South Africa. Mu 1923 anayamba kuphunzira m'zinthu yochepa malonda ku United Kingdom ndi United States mu nthawi kuchokera 1890 mpaka 1922. Kutalika awo anali ndi zaka pafupifupi 40. Zotsatira za kafukufuku wake, iye anafotokoza ntchito lotchedwa "M'zinthu ndi zinthu za zinthu chuma." wolemba anafotokoza pamaso pa amenewa Phokoso zochita maganizo kwa mode capitalist kupanga ndi nthawi lags mu kufala kwa nkhani zokhudza ndondomeko ya Makampani opanga zisankho zawo. M'mawu ena, vuto Kitchin amakhala ndi lamulo mwa kundipatsako kwa katundu ndi mabizinezi mawu zosowa zawo kumsika.

A nyengo ya zaka 7-11

Juglar mkombero ndi kawiri yaitali kuposa Kitchin. Koma linakhalapo wasayansi kumbuyo mu 1862. Mwa zoyambitsazo kuzindikiridwa kusinthasintha Juglar otchedwa kusintha ndalama mu chuma mapulani osati mlingo wa ntchito. Mu 2010, kafukufuku ntchito kusanthula kawalidwe anatsimikizira kukhalako kwa m'zinthu zoterozo mu mphamvu ya mankhwala dziko aakulu m'banja.

Kuznets mkombero

Izi oscillation zambiri. Iwo anali woyamba kufufuza Simon Kuznets mu 1930s ndi. Iwo pafupi 15-25 zaka. Chifukwa wolemba izi cyclical otchedwa njira zaziwerengero. Iye ankaona kuchuluka kwa osamukawo ndi ofanana akugunda yomanga. Smith yodziwika iwo monga m'zinthu zomangamanga ndalama. Ena chuma masiku ano akulumikiza m'zinthu deta ndi kusinthasintha zaka 18 phindu pa dziko monga chinthu cha ulimi. Linanena bungwe iwo akuona kukhazikitsa a msonkho wapadera. Komabe, Fred Harrison amakhulupirira kuti si kuthandiza ngakhale kuchepetsa cyclicality. Mu 1968 Hauri anadzudzula kuphunzira Kuznets. Iye anati deta cholakwika amene anali kusanthula kale. Komabe, Smith ananena kuti m'zinthu kuzindikiridwa iwo Tingaone mu kukula kwa dziko aakulu mankhwala zoweta popanda fyuluta anatulukira iwo.

kafukufuku Kondratieff

Kwambiri m'zinthu ntchito nthawi ndi nthawi ya zaka 45-60. The odziwika bwino Soviet zachuma Kondratieff ankakhulupirira kuti kusinthasintha bwanji m'magulu onse a chuma. Anaganizira mitengo, chiwongola dzanja. Lililonse mkombero Kondratiev wolemekezeka magawo anayi. The index waukulu, umene kuphunzira, anali kupanga mawu a phindu. Pakali pano, pali mafunde asanu:

• Kuyambira 1890 mpaka 1850, chifukwa cha maonekedwe a injini nthunzi ndi chiyambi cha kugwiritsa ntchito kwambiri thonje.
• Kuyambira 1850 mpaka 1900. Waukulu injini zitsulo njanji ndi zitsulo yopanga.
• Kuchokera mu 1900 mpaka 1950 zokhudzana yogawa magetsi komanso chitukuko cha makampani mankhwala a.
• Kuyambira 1950 mpaka 1990 Boma kukhala propulsive asatayike ndi magalimoto.
• Latsopano funde kugwirizana ndi mfundo ndi luso mauthenga ngati injini ikuyendera.

Kuwonjezera malongosoledwe a sayansi, asayansi ena amanena yaitali m'zinthu Kondratieff ndi kusintha zaziwerengero, nkhambakamwa ndi dziko ndi ngongole deflation. Pali Mabaibulo ambiri amakono ndi chiphunzitso cha zachuma Union. Iwo akhoza kugawidwa m'magulu awiri. Woyamba akunena za kusintha sayansi. The yachiwiri ikufotokoza za ngongole mkombero. Komabe, chuma ambiri savomereza chiphunzitso Kondratieff mafunde yaitali. Ngakhale maganizo kwambiri ndi chiyani zaka ankaona koyambirira kwa mkombero. Isanayambike mavuto azachuma padziko lonse Akukwana bwino mokwanira chiphunzitso Kondratieff, kusonyeza chiyambi cha nthawi ya pansi.