Nthawi zino kusanthula atsegula njira yatsopano ya chitukuko

Poganizira kusanthula nthawi zino, osati ngati umboni mfundo zowerengera ndipo chimagwiritsidwa ntchito mu kuchita, chodabwitsa, ife tinganene kuti nkhaniyi ndi zogwirizana kwambiri lero kuphunzira cha zochitika zosiyanasiyana. Makamaka mu ankafuna pa ntchito zachuma munthu, motero zitsanzo mabuku ambiri a sayansi ndi otchuka amapatsidwa ku mawonedwe a ntchito m'nkhani imeneyi. Koma mu dera lino la ntchito ija kuphunzira ndi kuwerengetsa nthawi sikuthetsa kumeneko.

The tanthauzo wa mndandanda nthawi m'njira zambiri akutikumbutsa za ndondomeko ya ntchito yosonkhanitsa mfundo zonse zowerengera, ndipo chotkom chikukonzekera pa intervals ena, ntchito kwenikweni, anayeza unsembe, kupereka yonena kwambiri. M'mawu ena, mu kufotokoza chodabwitsa chilichonse ntchito Zithunzi kumene abscissa atathana zizindikiro nthawi muyeso, ndipo thupi ukulu wake leni pa kukhazikitsa olamulira.

Kwenikweni njira nthawi zino kusanthula nthawi anapanga maziko a zokhudza malamulo ambiri thupi ndi njira luso. generalization awo walola njira zochepetsera kufotokoza kuti enieni akuti masamu. Koma osati njira zonse anali ongokwana mu Njira yeniyeni. A njira ya mavuto awiri aakulu sichinayambe zimafika. Ali:

- adziwe chikhalidwe cha mndandanda;

- kulosera.

Choncho kusanthula mndandanda nthawi analandira kutsogolera zina chitukuko ndi zida anaonekera wolemera ya zipangizo ndi njira.

Chitsanzo chachikulu tingachipeze powerenga anali chiwerengero cha mndandanda nthawi, akufuna mu 1976 ndi Bokosi ndi Jenkins. Pa chitsanzo cha kuphunzira ntchito za ndege mwezi padziko lonse kwa zaka khumi ndi ziwiri mu nthawi zaka 1949-1960, asonyeza pamaso pa zigawo ziwiri: kachitidwe pafupifupi liniya ndi kusintha nyengo. Pamene kuwonjezeka magalimoto chakhala chikukwera, ndipo malingana ndi nyengo, zigawo ndi nthawi amaphulika ndipo ntchito kuwonongeka. Mtundu wa malongosoledwe amatchedwa multiplicative seasonality chitsanzo.

Mu chaka chomwecho BOKOSI chomwecho ndi Jenkins anaganiza chidwi kwambiri mawu a kulosera, koma kwambiri nthawi yambiri ndi njira zovuta za autoregressive Integrated kusuntha pafupifupi (ARIMA).

Mu kuphunzira njira, amene poyera kunja analandira kufala zothandiza njira linasokonekera nthawi zino. Iye anafotokoza mu 80 ntchentche Mu zaka zapitazo. njira tichipeza mu kuphunzira njira pambuyo alowererepo ya mapeto kuchokera kunja. Nthawi zino kusanthula anali kuwunika kumayambiriro njira zatsopano za kasamalidwe, ntchito zosiyanasiyana amadziona bwanji, kusonkhezera ndondomeko malamulo , ndi zina zotero.

Kawalidwe kusanthula mndandanda nthawi anaonekera pamaziko a njira m'mbuyomu. Mwa muyezo wounikira njira iyi kuoneka bwino nthawi ndi pafupipafupi. Ankagwiritsa ntchito anapezazo ndi zochuluka zovuta, Foriya asinthe.

Kuchuluka kwa njira ndi luso, amene amagwiritsa nthawi zino kusanthula zikutsimikizira bwanji padziko lopatsa mudziwe zambiri. Atafotokoza njira izi ndi wolemera ndipo amafuna zinachitikira ena ku katswiri wa. Amphamvu adzatumpha mu chitukuko cha luso makompyuta kwachititsa kunena kuti mtundu uwu wa kuwunika kwa mlingo watsopano. Koma ubiquity Intaneti wapereka kwa gulu ambiri kufufuza kwatsopano mderali.

Kuti si nthawi zino kusanthula amagwiritsa bwino player mu msika Ndalama Zakunja, ndi kuphunzira ndandanda chitukuko kampani amalola woyang'anira kukhala oona mfundo oonekera ndi ziyenera msika lili m'munda lonse la Ntchitoyi ogulitsa malonda ndi Ngopambana, wakupatsani kusintha mlingo mtengo ndi osiyanasiyana mankhwala anagulitsidwa kapena misonkhano kupeza phindu pazipita.

Njira iliyonse ya kusanthula kuliganizira wapadera ndipo amafuna kuphunzira mokwanira. Ndipo ngati muli aliyense wa iwo ali ndi chidwi, cholinga cha nkhani zimatheka.